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AFDBench: A Reasoning-First AI Scientist for NationalWeather Service Forecast Discussions

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 25, 2026 · UTC

Large language models (LLMs) hallucinate numerical values when generating high-stakes meteorological text, posing risks for weather communication. We present AFDBench, an AI meteorologist that generates professional Area Forecast Discussions (AFDs) by reasoning through structured AI weather forecast data from Google's WeatherNext 2. We introduce AFDBench, the first benchmark for evaluating generative meteorological reasoning, comprising 7,732 expert written discussions from 13 National Weather Service (NWS) offices paired with real AI weather forecast inputs, and three complementary metrics: M

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