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PPDL: A Real-world Industrial User Retention Ratio Forecasting Framework Integrating Physical Priors with Deep Learning

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 12, 2026 · UTC

In multi-channel paid user acquisition, early and accurate prediction of user retention at the channel level is crucial for optimizing budget allocation. User retention curves display a pronounced temporal pattern: an initial period of high churn transitions into long-term stability. This pattern is further characterized by regular fluctuations attributable to seasonality and exhibits high serial autocorrelation. These intrinsic properties make such curves highly suitable for analysis within a time-series forecasting framework. However, forecasting user retention ratio for large-scale short-vi

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