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When a High Score Is an Illusion: Certifying Genuine versus Repackaged Forecasting Skill

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 16, 2026 · UTC

Ranks depend on the observations used for comparison. Reusing those observations can add association between forecast and outcome rank contrasts even when the evaluated forecast and outcome stay fixed. We characterize assignments that preserve association between specified population-rank contrasts, including forecast rank minus baseline rank compared with outcome rank minus baseline rank. Conditional on independent training, whole trajectories are sampled independently from a common law, with unrestricted dependence within each trajectory. The expected score separates into its target and an e

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