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Accurate prediction is not profitable advice: profit-based evaluation of machine learning nitrogen recommendations in winter wheat

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 27, 2026 · UTC

Nitrogen rates for winter wheat are set before the season, under unknown prices and weather. The standard UK advice does not respond to prices, yet recent price swings moved the most profitable rate by tens of kilograms per hectare. Machine learning is often proposed as the fix. However, it is usually judged on prediction accuracy, and accurate prediction does not by itself make the recommended rate more profitable. Our insight is to score nitrogen advice directly by the profit it forgoes on measured yield response curves. We build a test bench on 892 such curves from two long running UK exper

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