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Confident at the moment of action: belief miscalibration in LLM play under hidden information

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 25, 2026 · UTC

Agentic systems increasingly gate actions on a model's own stated confidence, which assumes confidence tracks correctness at the moment of acting. We test this in a hidden-information chess variant where royal status can be secretly, repeatedly relocated between pieces, and where an agent's stated probability distribution over the opponent's hidden royal piece -- elicited every turn, separately from the move it chooses -- is scored against ground truth recoverable after the game. Across two independent batches, captures made at high stated confidence ($\geq 0.5$) about the hidden piece's locat

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