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Beyond Point Forecasts: A Survey on Probabilistic Forecasting for Time Series and Spatiotemporal Data

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 11, 2026 · UTC

Probabilistic forecasting is central to decision-making under uncertainty, yet its methodological landscape has become increasingly fragmented across temporal and spatiotemporal forecasting, statistical modeling, machine learning, and deep generative modeling. This survey develops a unified perspective by organizing probabilistic forecasting methods according to where and how uncertainty is introduced into the forecasting pipeline. Our taxonomy connects model-agnostic approaches including ensembles and distribution-free calibration, with model-intrinsic approaches spanning Bayesian modeling, p

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