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Hindsight Bias in Clinical Temporal Reasoning: How Future Data Exposure Affects Large Language Model Judgment

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 11, 2026 · UTC

Clinical decisions are prospective, but clinical language models are often evaluated on retrospective records that reveal the final diagnosis, treatment response, and outcome. Such evaluations may reward the use of future information rather than reasoning under the uncertainty present at the decision point. We introduce a paired benchmark for measuring outcome-conditioned shifts consistent with hindsight bias in clinical temporal reasoning. It contains 171 case reports from the PubMed Central Open Access Subset---40 sepsis and 131 GLP-1/diabetes cases---represented as both textual narratives a

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