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C$^{3}$T: Counterfactual Causal Reasoning for Sentiment Shifts in Social-Media Conversation Trees

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 2, 2026 · UTC

Sentiment in social-media threads does not only vary across posts; it shifts as users react to claims, corrections, evidence, and hostility within a branching reply tree. We study why sentiment changes in rumor-centric conversation trees by treating discourse moves (e.g., denial/correction, evidence/link, toxicity/attack) as candidate interventions and asking (i) what sentiment a reply expresses, (ii) whether the sentiment shifts relative to its parent, and (iii) which prior message most plausibly drove the reply's sentiment. To support this setting, we introduce CaSiRe, a causal sentiment rea

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