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Chance-Constrained Belief-Space Maneuver Planning for Autonomous Collision Avoidance Under Uncertainty

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 11, 2026 · UTC

Increasing conjunction frequency in low Earth orbit places growing pressure on spacecraft operators to determine not only whether an encounter requires mitigation, but whether sufficient information is available to commit to a maneuver. This work formulates this information-action tradeoff as a belief-space planning problem for conjunctions between a maneuverable spacecraft and an unmaneuverable secondary object. The planner represents the uncertain orbital states as Gaussian beliefs and uses a chance-constrained belief-space Monte Carlo tree search framework to reason over possible future tra

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