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Timing-Aware Repurchase Prediction for Web-Scale E-Commerce: Survival Models for Multi-Surface Grocery Recommendation

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 28, 2026 · UTC

Repurchase recommenders in e-commerce are commonly framed as a binary question asking "will this customer buy this item within W days", a formulation that requires a separately trained model for every horizon of interest. We replace this stack with survival models that predict time-to-repurchase directly, and evaluate them on millions of customers from a major grocery e-commerce platform across more than thirty ablation configurations. Our study makes three contributions. First, an empirical hazard analysis reveals a slightly decreasing marginal hazard (k ~ 0.9), differing from the common intu

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