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Data-driven Prediction of Satellite-observed Avalanche Activity from Snowpack Simulations

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 14, 2026 · UTC

Avalanche forecasting requires knowledge of snowpack conditions and recent avalanche activity, but field observations are sparse across large mountain regions. We explore whether SNOWPACK simulations can predict avalanche activity mapped by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). We compiled five winters of Sentinel-1 avalanche detections across Norway and parts of Sweden, alongside SNOWPACK simulations forced by numerical weather predictions on a 20 x 20 km grid at different elevations and predefined slope angles. A transformer used five days of SNOWPACK outputs to predict the following day's SAR-det

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