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Evaluating Large Language Models for Forced Outage Risk Prediction: Benefits and Comparison to Machine Learning

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 2, 2026 · UTC

This study examines the ability of large language models (LLMs) to predict the risk of weather-related forced outages in the distribution grid in a zero-shot framework, without labeled training data. The problem is formulated as a binary severity classification task across three forecast horizons (3h, 6h, 12h), using six years of outage records and high-resolution weather data for a utility service area in central Texas. Four zero-shot LLMs are benchmarked against two supervised classifiers across two input configurations: one using current weather observations and the other using weather fore

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