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Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting for Forecast Combination

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 28, 2026 · UTC

Forecast combination is a reliable way to improve predictive performance when several forecasting models are available. Simple aggregation rules such as the mean, median, trimmed mean, inverse-loss weighting, and exponential weighting are often strong baselines, but their relative performance can vary across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment settings, and levels of disagreement among base forecasters. We develop Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that treats forecasting models as experts and assigns ensemble weights using a Gibbs-style exponential tran

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