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Calibrating subgrid parametrizations of single-column ocean models via simulation-based inference

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 3, 2026 · UTC

Subgrid parametrizations of vertical mixing in ocean models depend on free coefficients that cannot be measured directly and must be calibrated against high-fidelity references such as large-eddy simulations (LES). Existing approaches return point estimates and leave the associated uncertainty unquantified, a limitation when the inverse problem is ill-posed or when distinct parameter configurations fit the data comparably well. Simulation-based inference (SBI) addresses exactly this: given a prior and access to the simulator, it approximates the full posterior over parameters without requiring

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