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Diffusion-Based Refinement for Kilometer-Scale Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Aug 31, 2026 · UTC

Localized extreme precipitation is a major trigger of urban flash floods and landslides, yet producing nowcasts that combine fine spatial detail with probabilistic uncertainty remains challenging. Here we introduce exPreCast-ENS, a conditional residual diffusion framework that transforms the deterministic 4 km radar nowcaster exPreCast into a 1 km probabilistic ensemble while correcting systematic forecast errors. Conditioning on both the forecast and preceding radar observations lets the ensemble-mean correct the baseline rather than perturb it, while members represent unresolved fine-scale v

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