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Toward Explainable and Policy-Aware AI for Carbon Credit Price Prediction: A Research Framework for Emerging Carbon Markets

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 1, 2026 · UTC

Carbon markets put a price on emissions, yet that price remains hard to forecast. Work in this area clusters on the EU and Chinese schemes, compresses regulatory text into a sentiment score, and reports accuracy without calibration or explanation stability. We distil ten recurring gaps into an impact-feasibility matrix and propose EPA-CarbonNet, a six-layer architecture that fuses market series with policy text by cross-attention and calibrated intervals alongside policy-attributed explanations. We then build and test it on eleven years of daily S and P carbon index data. The findings are larg

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