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From Explanations to Interventions: Execution-Guided Counterfactual Synthesis in Temporal Graphs

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 10, 2026 · UTC

Can a trace explaining model execution also compute the changes needed for a specified alternative prediction? We propose trace-guided intervention search, which uses executable reasoning traces as an intermediate representation for intervention synthesis. A Specified-Foil Counterfactual edits past events so that a frozen temporal predictor selects a designated foil. Our method constructs facts and replacement values from completed original and foil executions and recovered unmet conditions. Proposal generation constructs edits and selects candidates within a fixed cap; exact replay verifies f

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