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Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 13, 2026 · UTC

Earth system modeling is shifting from task-specific predictors toward foundation models with general spatiotemporal representation capabilities. Although these models can jointly encode dynamic Earth fields, external forcings, and static geographic context for multistep forecasting, accurate point predictions or statistically calibrated intervals alone are insufficient for high-impact applications such as extremeweather warning, flood control, renewable-energy dispatch, and emergency resource allocation. What matters in practice is whether predictive uncertainty can be translated into reliabl

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