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How Good Are Time-Series Foundation Models for Pedestrian Crowd Count Forecasting? A Cross-Dataset Comparative Study

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 14, 2026 · UTC

Pedestrian-count forecasting supports pedestrian-oriented Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), including crowd monitoring, pedestrian-traffic staffing and routing, and proactive risk mitigation during surges. Recent time-series foundation models (FMs) report strong zero-shot accuracy on heterogeneous forecasting benchmarks, but it remains unclear whether these gains transfer reliably to pedestrian sensing deployments. We benchmark seven univariate forecasting approaches spanning four paradigms: Seasonal Naive, gradient-boosted trees (LightGBM, CatBoost), deep learning models (N-HiTS, Patc

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