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From Manual Construction to AI-Driven Scenario Emergence: Rethinking Catastrophe Risk Modeling

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 15, 2026 · UTC

Traditional catastrophe (CAT) risk models rely on costly manual construction to generate extreme weather scenarios, an approach largely unchanged since the 1990s. As climate extremes intensify, this creates mounting challenges to the entire risk transfer chain. This study proposes the TAISE framework, which repurposes AI weather forecasting models to produce coherent extreme weather sequences at a fraction of traditional costs. Through self-iterative generation, the framework produces continuous global atmospheric fields from which extreme events emerge. A proof-of-concept experiment demonstra

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