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IRENE: A Convolutional GRU Ensemble Model for Radar Precipitation Nowcasting over Italy

arXiv · AI, language, vision and robotics · article · Sep 15, 2026 · UTC

We present IRENE (Italian Radar Ensemble Nowcasting Experiment), a deep learning model for probabilistic short-range precipitation nowcasting over the Italian domain at \SI{1}{km} spatial and 5 min temporal resolution. IRENE adopts an encoder--forecaster architecture built on multi-scale Convolutional Gated Recurrent Units (ConvGRUs), trained on the national radar composite produced by the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). An importance-sampling scheme focuses training on precipitation-relevant events, while the almost-fair Continuous Ranked Probability Score (afCRPS) is adopted as th

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First collected: 2026-09-20T08:40:59.508Z. This is not the publication date.